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Ted, on average I was about half a second out. I was working from memory, not the record book.
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Golden Century was even slower out of the gates than Grey Area, and finished third. Different horses run differently with different runs obviously, but the overhead shows Grey Area five-wide at one point going from the front straight to the back straight, four-wide was the closest he got around that bend. That, in my eyes, is NOT giving your horse every possible chance.
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On average based on the above times Alabama Lass ran about a second slower, what does that equate to, about 5 lengths ?
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I'm not a jockey either but if you are in a field with a lot of no-hopers (seven of the field were over $50 in the betting) you have to be aware they may stop very quickly and cause problems. Ideally, they stay out the back and don't get in anyone's way but if you are riding a fancied one which needs to come from the rear you have to be aware of where the no hopers are. Blake Shinn's ride on DAMASK ROSE was the best of the day - as I said in my review, he must have watched Ryan Moore because that was a Ryan Moore ride. I'm not sure what the "plan" was but Shinn probably knew the Aussie runners would be up front and making the pace so he was probably happy to sit off. Whether he knew or hoped the gap would come on the inside I don't know but when he saw it he must have thought Christmas had come early. Perhaps he had seen how the runners were swinging off the home turn into the straight in previous races and reasoned the same might happen in the Kiwi. It did and that for me is the difference between a good jockey and a great jockey (with a fair slab of luck thrown in).
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What would l do? I don't pretend to be a jockey so l have no idea. What l do know is that Blake Shinn never intended to be tailed off last in the NZB Kiwi either, but had a plan B and a plan C and still won the richest race of the day. Maybe Grey Area can only be ridden one way, l don't know, but i bet ridden differently it would have finished closer to the winner than what it did, even if unhappy. The standard side-on shot didn't show any interference as it dropped back, but the overhead shot certainly did. Those further back copped more than those running more handy. As you say, he dropped like a stone. Very few would have been expecting that just as they were all trying to make their forward moves.
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They don't break 1:09:00 at Ellerslie that often Year Winner Jockey Trainer(s) Time Second Third 2025[4] Crocetti 56.5 Warren Kennedy[5] Danny Walker & Arron Tata 1:10.22 (soft) Alabama Lass 52 Luberon 55 2024[6] Waitak 55 Warren Kennedy Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott 1:09.76 (Pukekohe) Bonny Lass 54 Mercurial 55 2023[7] Imperatriz 56 Opie Bosson Mark Walker 1:08.90 (Te Rapa) Babylon Berlin 54 Levante 57 2022[8] Entriviere 55 Opie Bosson Jamie Richards, Matamata 1:09.36 Levante 55 Babylon Berlin 53.5 2021[9] Avantage 57 Opie Bosson Jamie Richards, Matamata 1:08.91 Julius 58 Levante 53.5 2020[10] Julius[11] 56 Jason Waddell[12] John Bell, Cambridge 1:09.70 Winter Bride Evalina 2019[13] Santa Monica 53 [14] Trudy Thornton Stephen Ralph, Te Awamutu 1:09.47 Princess Kereru Melody Belle 2018[15][16] Volpe Veloce 54 [17] Jake Bayliss Graham Richardson, Matamata 1:10.65 Packing Eagle Volks Lightning 2017[18][19] Start Wondering 55.5 Johnathan Parkes J J & Evan Rayner, Whanganui 1:08.84 Perfect Fit Reilly Lincoln 2016[20] Ryan Mark 56 [21] Opie Bosson John Morell, Te Rapa 1:11.04 Allez Eagle Natuzzi 2015[22] In Style 54 Leith Innes Danica Guy, Matamata 1:10.34 Whosyourmaster Durham Town 2014[23] Bounding [24] 52 Mark Du Plessis Ken & Bev Kelso, Matamata 1:10.25 Waterford Little Wonder 2013[25] Fleur de Lune 54 Jason Jago Lee Somerville, Cambridge 1:09.21 Jetset Lad Durham Town 2012[26] Atomic Force 58 Nash Rawiller Gai Waterhouse, Randwick (AUS) 1:11.57 The Hombre Twilight Savings 2011[27] Miss Raggedy Ann 53 Natasha Collett Andrew Scott, Matamata 1:09.87 Atapi Tip The Wink 2010[28] A Gold Trail 57 Michael Rodd Gary Portelli, Warwick Farm Racecourse (AUS) 1:09.34 Atapi Richard Beymer 2009[29] Jacowils 55.5 Mark Hills Kristin Stead, Te Rapa 1:09.60 Dashing Donna Pinsoir 2008[30][31] Imananabaa 54 Andrew Calder Don Sellwood, Cambridge 1:09.04 Needuask Brianna 2007[32] Donna Rosita 51 Lisa Cropp Piri Ranui, Tauranga 1:09.74 Gee I Jane Imananabaa 2006[33] Baldessarini 53.5 Lisa Cropp Anne Herbert 1:08.85 Gee I Jane 55 Pin Up Boy 52.5 2005[34] Recurring 56 Hayden Tinsley Gerald Ryan, Rosehill (AUS) 1:10.12 Gee I Jane 51.5 Sedecrem 56 2004[35] Vinaka Opie Bosson Paul O'Sullivan, Matamata 1:08.66 Pay My Bail Tully Dane 2003 Egyptian Raine 52 Lance O'Sullivan Kenny Rae, Ruakaka 1:08.66 Gwen’s Rules 52 Marcurous 52 2002 Sound The Alarm Gary Grylls Richard Otto, Te Aroha 1:09.97 Super Impressive Vinaka 2001 Fritz 58 Noel Harris Neil Coulbeck, Leithfield 1:10.45 O’Malleys Boy 58 Travellin’ Man 56 2000[36] Cannsea 53.5 Michael Coleman Michael Moroney & Andrew Scott, Matamata 1:09.63 Cullen 51.5 Star Of Gold 53.5
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Completely missed the start and was stone bonking last after 300m. If your instructions are to get to the front (and the commentator said many thought that's what GREY AREA would do) what do you do if you blow the start that badly? The horse couldn't go the gallop on the bridle so had to be ridden up round the outside to get to the front after 600m - how much energy did that use? Needless to say, he fall back through the field like a stone in water and mercifully, as far as I could see, didn't hamper anyone trying to improve from the rear. Had Kennedy stayed at the rear, he'd probably still have finished towards the end as the horse didn't like being headed and quickly lost interest - the blinkers made matters worse because the horse missed the start.
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By Canterbury Man · Posted
"Remedial Work" on a new track? The only way they can get it raceable at the moment is to verti-drain, tyne and core it during race week. -
By scooby3051 · Posted
I dont train him, so I dont mouth off but he is a decent horse in the making...that is as plain as day...but of course you would just argue for the sake of it -
The track manager Jason Fulford explained on Trackside yesterday that they were undertaking more remedial work designed to get the track to a Good 4 at the commencement of a raceday. I have no idea of the procedure being undertaken but I guess it's reasonable to expect faster times following this.
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By Canterbury Man · Posted
Do we wait until it's a 4yr old? Or will it be chasing black type at the Brisbane Winter Carnival? -
Yes very underrated, frustrating for trainer setting for the ultimate staying race for a ride like that, surely from 18 at the barrier one would think going back would only option, nice mare, hopefully she comes into to her own, backed her in her first ever win, trav on the other hand second his second race at good old greymouth.
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By Thejanitor · Posted
Come on old mate. How many tonics did you have. Tact McLeod would not have beaten the first two home if there had been a passing lane. The horse was flat turning for home, they all were. He battled well, all credit to him but he was never going to win. He's consistent horse but not as good as Leap to Fame, Don Hugo or Swayzee. I wonder if he will stay in Oz or return to Canterbury? -
By Thejanitor · Posted
What have they got against The Janitor in NSW, Pure? As you say, he deserved a start in the Chariots, he had great form and higher rated than other horses that did get a start in the race. He would have been a live chance in the Chariots. It doesn't make sense. He's gone two cracking races, went 1:49 and can't get a start. Something is wrong. He should be a grand circuit horse next season. -
By Thejanitor · Posted
Yes, Leap to Fame, huge. He never gives up and was coming again at the finish. He's the best but he's got some competition. The Aussies are ahead of us in both gaits, LTF, Swayzee, Don Hugo, Bay of Biscay... they are so consistent snd never go a bad race in any company. -
By tripple alliance · Posted
Great post Mattski from what I've been told the atmosphere was electric at least I could see the world class racing on T V and I made a donation or two . Clearly the day was a huge success and the track looked fantastic and as Mattski stated the winners came from anywhere ,a brilliant day and that's what the future looks like at Ellerslie , now all we need is for Avondale to join up and we might see two days a year with huge stakes . -
Good questions. I was wondering too, as Ellerslie used to be around 1.08.5 to 1.09 for a good 1200m open class race.
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