The weather forecast is looking absolutely appalling. A real shame for the club. Thank goodness I've got a nice close mobility park and a nice covered in dinner venue 🤣 The back runners will need to be wearing a snorkel at least, the drivers oxygen tanks, goggles and flippers!!   

37 for the six races at Kempton where I will be this afternoon. One double figure field - 11 in the second, the novices handicap hurdle. Just 10 in the two steeplechases but it should be a lovely sunny afternoon on decent spring ground.

Dynamite, race aint won yet mate! 😏 but you enjoy yuh early crow.....this is Cambridge Raceway not Menangle.....just sayin 😆   Cheers Iraklis

Mo'unga, unlikely to start, $21 Ohoka Connor, has a start, $201 

Well I'm assuming maybe that horses missing a stat (where the total number of wins doesn't match the good, soft and heavy wins added together) maybe won an an easy track before they were deleted from existence? Dunno. But I've noticed the same thing before myself, that We're Doomed mentioned above. Although maybe the stats just suck. 

We won the draws…. Don drawn perfectly….. to strong to fast….. Larry to death seat….. The Locomotive draws to lead…. 

The truth was and has been posted yet you still find reasons to argue...you are never satisfied...we all know you hate trentham you hate Ellerslie time to move on....you flogged this one to death already.

He contributes alot of decent stuff..unlike yourself who adds little to zero value.

Yes we will put the odds up on Box Seat but you can't bet on them. Go to Futures  

11148 1.Duchess Megxit(Fr1) 😧 Tony Herlihy  T: Barry Purdon & Scott Phelan NBT SP 51111 2.Don Hugo(Fr2) 😧 Luke Mccarthy  T: Luke Mccarthy NBT SP 13346 3.Republican Party(Fr3) 😧 Carter Dalgety (J) T: Cran & Chrissie Dalgety NBT SP 61626 4.Mo'unga(Fr4) 😧 -  T: Regan Todd NBT SP 21811 5.Don't Stop Dreaming(Fr5) 😧 -  T: Hayden & Amanda Cullen NBT SP 13213 6.Pinseeker(Fr6) 😧 Jonny Cox  T: Jonny Cox NBT SP 32262 7.Merlin(Fr7) 😧 Zachary Butcher  T: Barry Purdon & Scott Phelan NBT SP 21121 8.Leap To Fame(Fr8) 😧 Grant Dixon  T: Grant Dixon NBT SP 0x891 9.Chase A Dream(Fr9) 😧 Mark Purdon  T: Mark & Nathan Purdon NBT SP 72124 10.Rakero Rocket(Fr10) 😧 Gavin Smith  T: Tom Bamford NBT SP 2x729 11.Ohoka Connor(Fr11) 😧 Tim Williams  T: Steve & Amanda Telfer

Guys, dunno bout you but I'm a wreck already 😆 anyway here's the draws TAB Trot 1st, followed by the Betcha race:   Cheers Iraklis

58x11 1.Im Ready Jet(Fr1) 😧 -  T: Andy Gath NBT SP 42144 2.Queen Elida(Fr2) 😧 -  T: Brent Lilley NBT SP 11921 3.Oscar Bonavena(Fr3) 😧 Mark Purdon  T: Mark & Nathan Purdon NBT SP 11531 4.Arcee Phoenix(Fr4) 😧 -  T: Chris Svanosio NBT SP 12112 5.Not As Promised(Fr5) 😧 -  T: Graham Dwyer NBT SP 21341 6.The Locomotive(Fr6) 😧 -  T: Brad Hewitt NBT SP 21132 7.Muscle Mountain(Fr7) 😧 -  T: Greg & Ben Hope NBT SP 21314 8.Kyvalley Hotspur(Fr8) 😧 -  T: Michelle Wallis & Bernie Hackett NBT SP 0x113 9.Bet N Win(Fr9) 😧 Bob Butt  T: David & Stacey White

FFS have they scammed that many people already. Unbelievable lack of awareness by so many. I am still skeptical with the numbers. Do those increased turnover figures include bonus bets? (Deposit $100 and get $100 in bonus bets) and therefore yes the turnover has increased but the rosy turnover has not come from the punters pockets. Shit give me 50K and I will turnover $1million plus with it. It is all BS

Tuesday SIRE-LINE STORIES: PART 3 Having covered in Part 1 various failed and probably failing sire-lines, and in Part 2 dealt with the 20th century’s greatest sire, Northern Dancer, we now turn to look at his only rivals for future sire-line hegemony, who all trace back to a common ancestor, Phalaris. Two of the three also share a more-recent male-line ancestor, Nearco. However, the one that doesn’t, and the last to be covered, may represent the single greatest threat to the dominance of the Northern Dancer sire-line.  Phalaris/Pharos/Nearco sire-lines: Nasrullah Nasrullah was a highly-talented son of Nearco bred by Aga Khan III; but, although he was a top two-year-old and won the Champion Stakes as a three-year-old, employing maximum effort wasn’t his strong point; and he finished third in a wartime Derby he was probably capable of winning. However, standing initially in Ireland and later in Kentucky, he proved himself an outstanding stallion. Lester Piggott’s first Derby winner, Never Say Die, was his major winner in Britain; but most of his best runners raced in the US.  The most important of Nasrullah’s stallion sons was undoubtedly Bold Ruler, a top-class racehorse who was the 1957 Horse of the Year. Although mainly known as a sire of precocious two-year-olds, Bold Ruler’s best offspring by far was the US Triple Crown winner Secretariat, also a champion two-year-old and, with a Timeform rating of 144, the highest-rated American horse of all time.  However, as a sire Secretariat (pictured below) proved far more influential through his daughters than his sons, becoming a broodmare sire of a number of important stallions including A.P. Indy, Chief’s Crown, Gone West and Storm Cat.  Accordingly, the best hopes for continuation of the Nasrullah sire-line probably lie with a great-grandson of Bold Ruler, Seattle Slew, another Triple Crown winner. The conduit for Seattle Slew’s line is Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, A.P. Indy, whose talented but unsound son Pulpit produced three-time leading US sire Tapit.  Tapit’s son Flightline, unbeaten and unchallenged in six races including the Breeders’ Cup Classic, is a vital member of the next generation; since another top-class runner from the line, the $14,750,000+ earner California Chrome (a grandson of Pulpit but sired by an indifferent runner), now stands in Japan for under one-thousandth of this sum after achieving little at stud in Kentucky.  The best racehorse produced by Nasrullah was dual US Classic winner Nashua; but as a sire his fillies were far better than his colts. However, Caro, a grandson of the temperamental British-bred sprinter Grey Sovereign, was a successful sire in both France and Kentucky; and his fourth-generation descendant, champion two-year-old Uncle Mo, and his own son, Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, are leading US sires today.   Another of Nasrullah’s important stallion sons was Never Bend, a top-class runner who placed in two US Classics but far outdid this at stud, when in successive crops he sired Mill Reef and Riverman. Mill Reef was both a brilliant racehorse and a champion sire in Britain and Ireland, getting Derby winners Shirley Heights and Reference Point, along with 2,000 Guineas winner Doyoun. The latter sired very good racehorses but somewhat disappointing sires in Daylami and Kalanisi, neither of whom were able to continue the line.  Shirley Heights did rather better, siring another English Derby winner, Slip Anchor (who like Reference Point was a one-paced horse who disappointed as a stallion); the 2,000 Guineas winner Mark Of Esteem (who produced Derby winner Sir Percy); and, most importantly, Darshaan. The latter defeated Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest in a famous renewal of the Prix du Jockey Club; and later became champion sire in France, producing the Prix du Jockey Club and Arc winner Dalakhani, However, although his fillies were influential producers, none of his other sons, nor any produced by Dalakhani, seemed able to extend the sire-line. Riverman, an outstanding miler, was similarly unsuccessful in this regard. Twice champion sire in France after producing fillies who won successive Prix de l’Arc de Triomphes, he also produced an outstanding son in Irish River, both a champion two-year-old and champion miler at three. Standing in Kentucky for most of his career, he too proved to be a good stallion; but his sons have been unable to prolong the line.  The other important male-line from Nasrullah came through Red God, a good two-year-old in Britain but less successful in the USA. The key element here was Red God’s son, Blushing Groom, foaled when he was 20 years old and both a champion two-year-old and champion miler at three, though unsurprisingly lacking the stamina to finish closer than third in The Minstrel’s Derby.  Sent to stud in the USA, Blushing Groom’s best sons were the 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Nashwan and the Arc winner Rainbow Quest. Though both proved to be good stallions, with the former getting another Arc winner, Bago, and the dual King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Swain, and the latter the Derby scorer Quest For Fame and a further Arc winner in Saumarez, none of these was able to continue the line. Accordingly, after a variety of ups and downs, it appears that the survival of the Nasrullah sire-line depends on relatively few male-line descendants of his son Bold Ruler and great-grandson Caro – but these do include some top-class horses.  Phalaris/Pharos/Nearco sire-lines: Royal Charger The originator of this line was Nasrullah’s three-parts brother, a good but less brilliant racehorse who was best at six to eight furlongs. Third in the 2,000 Guineas as a three-year-old, Royal Charger’s major win came in the Ayr Gold Cup carrying 133lb as a four-year-old. Though he too was exported as a stallion to the US, his impact has spread further afield.  Royal Charger’s Irish-bred son Turn-To followed him to the US, where he became a leading two-year-old but broke down at three after winning six of his eight races. His son, Sir Gaylord, suffered a similar fate, with his career-ending injury occurring before he was to run as favourite in the Kentucky Derby - but at least he managed 18 runs, of which he won ten. The CV of another of Turn-To’s sons, Hail To Reason, reads: ‘Champion two-year-old/18 races: nine wins, seven stakes wins/retired due to fractured sesamoids’ – but as the 18 races all came in his two-year-old year the last element is not entirely surprising.   Sir Gaylord’s best son was the brilliant 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner, Sir Ivor, whose most important offspring was Sir Tristram; a modest runner who became leading Australian sire six times. In turn, his son Zabeel, a much better racehorse, was a multiple leading sire in both Australia and New Zealand. A line from Zabeel’s son Savabeel and grandson Lonhro to his son Pierro, all top-class racehorses, remains active.   Much more vibrant are sire-lines generated by Hail To Reason. Most important here is that via his son Halo, a good US grass runner who was originally sold to Britain but then rejected when he was found to be a crib-biter. At stud in the US, his most notable product was a black colt that nearly died from a virus as a foal; was unsold due to faulty hocks as a yearling; narrowly escaped being killed in a traffic accident as a two-year-old; and then allowed to go to Japan as a stallion despite having won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic in the meantime. His name was Sunday Silence.  Sunday Silence transformed Japanese breeding, becoming champion sire on thirteen occasions. More importantly, some of his offspring won or placed close-up in major international races. More importantly still, his home produce began to consistently outperform those by expensive stallions imported from Europe and America. For the first time, a stallion who began his stud career in Japan became one whose sons were keenly sought in his new homeland.  The story was largely repeated with Sunday Silence’s best son Deep Impact, bred in Japan from an imported Group 1 winner who also finished second in the Oaks - but this time all his major victories came in Japan. In addition, even more of his produce won important races abroad, some having been bred by European studs sending mares to visit him in Japan; such as with Auguste Rodin, Saxon Warrior and Study Of Man standing in Europe, the possibility is that Deep Impact may become the first Japanese-bred stallion to make a deep impact elsewhere . . . Sorry! In 2024, the last year ‘Impacto’ is likely to feature among the leading stallions in Japan, his son, the Japanese Derby winner Kizuna, succeeded him as champion sire. Others of the Sunday Silence line to feature high up the 2024 list included international Group 1 winner Heart’s Cry (by Sunday Silence) and quintuple Grade 1 winner Kitasan Black (by Deep Impact’s Grade 2-winning brother Black Tide). Both have elite-level winning sons at stud in Japan. In the case of the latter this is the six-time Group/Grade 1 winner Equinox, rated by the Racing Post as the best racehorse in the world in 2023 - and narrowly ahead of Deep Impact as the best descendant of Sunday Silence so far. The other active Japanese sire-line tracing to Hail To Reason comes through his Derby-winning son Roberto down to the Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia and the six-time Grade 1 winner Maurice. While Hail To Reason is already an influential international sire, his male-line is presently important only in Japan. However, the plethora of high-class stallions tracing to him in that country, bolstered by newcomers like Equinox and Deep Impact’s Japanese Triple-Crown winner Contrail, could help it become significant throughout the world. The Phalaris/Sickle sire-line to Native Dancer and Mr Prospector   The odd-one-out amongst the most important sire-lines of today is the sole Phalaris line not passing through Pharos and Nearco. Instead, it runs through Sickle, a half-brother to Hyperion whose best run was when third in the 2,000 Guineas. This is also the second most significant sire-line in the world today - and by some way the most important in the US.  The line goes from Sickle to the US-bred Unbreakable, a good two-year-old but below the best in Britain, to Preakness Stakes winner Polynesian and thence to the great racehorse Native Dancer, a champion at two, three and four, winner of 21 of his 22 races and second in the other (the Kentucky Derby). At stud, two of Native Dancer’s offspring in particular had long-term influence on the breed. One was the dam of Northern Dancer; the other was Raise A Native, the sire of Mr Prospector. Another son sired Sea-Bird; so Native Dancer was clearly quite a useful grandsire. Raise A Native, a heavy-topped, muscular horse, was unbeaten in four races at two before breaking down. At stud he proved to be a major influence for speed; siring champion US sires Alydar, Exclusive Native and Mr Prospector, along with the Kentucky Derby winner Majestic Prince. Exclusive Native’s best son, Affirmed, narrowly prevailed over Alydar in all three US Triple Crown events; and lines from most of the above (Affirmed was the exception) continued to produce top-class horses for several generations. However, the only one to produce a male-line that survives to this day was the least distinguished on the racecourse . . . Mr Prospector was the top-priced yearling of his year, bringing $220,000 despite offset knees and turning out his right foreleg. He proved to be a good sprinter who won seven of his 14 races; but he was well behind Secretariat and three-time Horse of the Year Forego in assessments of the 1973 crop. ’Mr P’ initially retired to stud in Florida, but the results of his first runners swiftly earned his promotion to Kentucky.  Today the Mr Prospector (pictured below) sire-line is the major challenger to that of Northern Dancer throughout the world. His son Miswaki (sire of Urban Sea) and grandson Street Cry (sire of the mighty mares Winx and Zenyatta) may have made their most important contributions to the breed via female offspring. However, vibrant ‘Mr P’ male-lines run from Fappiano, Gone West, Kingmambo, Seeking The Gold and Smart Strike, some better known than others. Here is a little more about each of them.  Fappiano was a good two-year-old and three-year-old in the US, though slightly below the best of his year. Nonetheless, he became a major sire, his best son being Unbridled, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. One son of Unbridled, Grindstone, won the Kentucky Derby by a nose, then produced Birdstone, who sired two Classic winners in his very first crop but so little thereafter that his fee fell to $5,000.  Another son was the Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, who was exported to Japan after leaving behind the sire of the US Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, American Pharoah. However, the best stallion son of Unbridled was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Unbridled’s Song, who sired Arrogate, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup and $17,422,600 in prize money. However, Arrogate died in 2020 after just four seasons at stud.  The most prominent of Fappiano’s male-lines today springs from a lesser source, Cryptoclearance, a tough horse who won twelve and placed in 17 of his 44 races, earning over $3,000,000. At stud he sired winners of the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, it was a relatively moderate horse named Ride The Rails, sold to Argentina as a stallion, who ensured his stud legacy, when in that country he got Candy Ride, undefeated in six races including a Grade 1 race when sent to the US.  This earned him a place at stud there, where he has sired several Grade 1 winners now also at stud. These include the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner, who earned $15,988,500 and has a stud fee of $250,000. To date he has sired six Grade 1-winning sons, including a fellow winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Sierra Leone.  Gone West was a good but not outstanding racehorse who became a better stallion. One of his surviving male-lines runs from his champion miler, Zafonic, whose triple Group 2 winner, Iffraaj, produced Wootton Bassett, now standing for €300,000 after siring ten Group/Grade 1-winning sons, including four in 2024.  In addition, there are active American lines coming from the Breeder’s Cup Sprint winner Speightstown and Elusive Quality, a mere Grade 3 winner who sired quadruple Grade 1 winner Quality Road. A number of Grade 1-winning sons of both Speightstown and Quality Road are at stud, with grandsons starting to join them. Kingmambo (out of the great racemare Miesque) was a high-class miler in France, though overshadowed on the racecourse by his nephew, Zafonic. He proved to be something of a ‘throw-back’ to the 1970s and ‘80s in being an important sire of European classic horses based in the USA. His best stallion sons include Group 1 winners El Condor Pasa, King’s Best and Lemon Drop Kid, who all produced good sons who were unsuccessful at stud (one being Derby and Arc winner Workforce).  Accordingly, by far his most influential son is the Japanese Derby winner King Kamehameha, who in becoming twice leading sire in Japan was the one interloper in the Sunday Silence-line domination of this title from 1995 to 2022. KK’s best stallion sons are the 2023 leading sire, Duramente, and Lord Kanaloa, a rarity among Japanese sires in having excelled as a racehorse at distances of only six to eight furlongs. These and other sons have produced high-class runners that are now at stud in Japan, where the line is the strongest challenger to that of Sunday Silence.  Seeking The Gold was a high-class racehorse, a Group 1 winner who also placed second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As a stallion many of his best produce were fillies, but a major exception ensured the continuation of his male-line. This was Dubai Millennium, winner of nine of his ten races including the race in anticipation of which he was named, the Dubai World Cup of the year 2000. Unfortunately, Dubai Millennium died of grass sickness in late April of his first season at stud. At the time of his death the colt that was to cement his legacy was not quite three months old.  Dubawi was the first of his sire’s progeny to run, the first to win and the first to take a Group 1 prize, when he won the National Stakes as a two-year-old. The next year he added two others, the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the Prix Jacques Le Marois, though he wasn’t quite able to get home when third behind Motivator and Walk In The Park in the Derby. He was retired to stud the next year, standing for £25,000.  The fee swiftly started to rise once his first crop began to race as three-year-olds and up, with one son, Makfi, winning the 2,000 Guineas; another, Poet’s Voice, taking the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes; and two others the Dubai World Cup. Since then, Dubawi has become the only stallion not from the Northern Dancer line to be champion sire in Britain and Ireland since Sadler’s Wells’ first title in 1990. His sons or grandsons, New Bay, Night Of Thunder, Too Darn Hot and Zarak, already show considerable promise of continuing the line. Ghaiyyath, his highest-rated offspring on RPRs, is among others that may do likewise.    Smart Strike’s best win came in a Grade 1 handicap in the USA, but he sustained a fracture when prepping for the Breeders’ Cup. However, he greatly exceeded expectations at stud by twice being leading US sire. The most prominent element of his sire-line is that coming from the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup and Preakness Stakes winner Curlin (who won over $10m in prize-money).  Curlin’s best stallion son to date is the dual Grade 1 winner Good Magic (also second to Justify in the Kentucky Derby), who sired a pair of brothers that won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 2023 and 2024 respectively. These are likely to follow other high-class sons of Good Magic and Curlin (including 2023 US Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish) in becoming stallions.  Lost Phalaris male-lines The sire-line from Phalaris to Fairway, and then to his sons Fair Trial and Honeyway, led to the 1970’s champions Brigadier Gerard, Grundy and Troy. However, generally disappointing stud results from the three contributed to the line’s eventual failure, when a branch through triple-champion Australian sire Wilkes also disappeared.  The line from Phalaris to Pharamond (a full-brother to Sickle who won the Middle Park Stakes but later disappointed) to the 1953 US Horse of the Year, Tom Fool, generated numerous top-class winners. The best was Buckpasser, US Horse of the Year in 1966.  However, Buckpasser excelled as a sire of fillies; and his male-line eventually faded despite having produced three Kentucky Derby winners in the interim, including Silver Charm, who also won the Dubai World Cup and Preakness Stakes.  Conclusions In due course, it is likely that the Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer branches of the Phalaris male-line will be regarded as separate entities, with the Hail To Reason and Nasrullah lines (though more closely linked to the Northern Dancer line) possibly viewed in the same way. If only three of these survive, it is likely to be the first three; and they will be the Eclipse/Herod/Matchem equivalents of the next century. Please text me if this prediction proves correct.  However, accurate forecasts of which sire-lines will succeed are impossible to make. Who, in 1800, would have predicted that the major male-line, two centuries later, would be that of Pot8os rather than 12-times champion sire Highflyer? In 1900 what would have been the odds that the same would be true of Bona Vista (recently sold to Hungary), rather than the superb stallion St Simon? Who in 1965 would have asserted that the line coming from little Northern Dancer in Canada, not the great racehorse Sea-Bird, would be the most important in the world 60 years later? Would anyone, forewarned in 1975 that the principal challenge to this line would arise from a member of the 1970 crop, have suggested Mr Prospector rather than Secretariat?  The struggle for supremacy between sire-lines is even more intense than that between individual stallions during their stud careers, and far more so than any of the tests they faced on the racecourse. It takes many decades to forecast with any degree of accuracy who the ultimate winners might be.  Other than by looking down from some astral plane, none of us will be able to view all the remaining legs of this equine relay race. However, I do hope you’ve found it of interest to look at the race replay so far!

Oh, the "expert" AI comments are not ever worthy of comment. 

'Easy' isn't a track condition there, nor here for the last 3 years since they were changed to match the Oz ones. So, I don't see how you would expect to have track condition stats reporting that.

A good night at the office some great odds. 5? I think.Wilson 4?. That must be over 50 now and good to see Alex and Karen get a couple with the Mati's.  Looong way to go though

Did anyone think about the possible connotation here ?  Cheap and nasty ? Probably doesn’t matter if they have paid enough, but brand values usually matter if you are serious.

It's not just the TAB. I use Sportsbet and its statistics are always out of wack, and the form comments can be terrible.

Track conditions are always wrong. They don't show "easy" track form, just good, soft and heavy.  I thought everything else was okay? I didn't study closely however.....