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Haha , didn't I mention ! No , at that price happy to just have a few bucks on the nose . And gave up trying to understand other human beings , I have trouble understanding myself sometimes . -
By sunlineboy · Posted
Nice going! I'm not knocking your strategy, just trying to understand your way of thinking, as it differs from mine It's how we, as humans, learn. And I'm also happy to hear that you didn't include Bak Da Angel in a multi -
Geez given the Metservice have just issued another severe thunderstorm weather alert/warnin for Auckland area, wonder how great it's gunna be later for racin....😟 Cheers Iraklis -
No , because if a one 1.65 shot can get beaten then so can the others , they're animals . I'm happy to risk a smaller amount to win a larger one . Just had a few dollars on Bak Da Angel so yes happy punting , oh by the way I only back to win . Win big or go home . Good luck with your strategy .
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By sunlineboy · Posted
If the first leg of your multi fails, do you shut up shop? Potentially wasting, as you said, two confident bets? Or do you take another multi with the final two legs? -
By sunlineboy · Posted
Your last leg should be your most confident bet, right? Because you're effectively risking more on it. No one really looks at multis in that manner, and I'm trying to change that. Blackjack is a good example. Card counters wait for the best time to increase their bet and maximise their chances of winning. Chasing... when you bet singles with a staking plan, there is no such thing as chasing. -
When I saw Gubellini's post it ran through my mind perhaps either he or Rev were there when Sleepy Fox won his 4th Easter in 47 ?😄 Sorry guys - the thought was only fleeting honestly 😬 -
I totally agree , but I'm happy to risk $20 on a 3 number multi . So you tell me if you just put your $20 on the first time and it loses , what then . But blackjack is a bad example as it's a game of chance , I'm backing my knowledge . Because it's $66 straight out of my pocket if I back a single , , I'm only risking $20 and if the first one loses , sweet , and I like most smart punters don't chase my losses . So what do you do if you think your best chance is the first horse and it loses , $66 lost , do you chase it ???
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By sunlineboy · Posted
I give up. As I said, happy punting. -
By sunlineboy · Posted
Answer me this, and I'll use blackjack as an example because it's relatively 50/50. You place a $20 bet, it wins. You then place $40 on another hand, it wins. You then place $80 on the third hand. You are now an $80 bettor, yes? If you say no because your first bet was only $20, then I well and truly give up trying to explain MY example. -
Of course I'm happy to risk the $66 , it's called gambling , that's the whole point . On your theory I should just back the first one and walk away with a $13 profit , or a lose of $20 . You never know which leg of your multi is going to lose so which should you just back . I want to get a substantial amount on the 3rd horse , that is my end game , because I want a substantial return .
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By sunlineboy · Posted
I made a long post but it was mostly regurgitating old stuff. All the best with your bets nomates! -
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And again the main point around my multi/s is around being selective and having great confidence in the quality of the horses and riders . Who's winning , your forehead or the wall ??? Yes and because it was a competition you were forced by design to HAVE to select multis , would you have had the confidence to back any of those multis if not forced to look for them . When I take a multi it is because I have seen horses that I believe are exceptional win chances but there is no value in backing them as singles , because they are so short you have to put a substantial amount on each horse to make it worthwhile , which of course carries an inherent risk of a big loss because it is horse racing .
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Now Trumps mob may be about to move on from trying to sort the Ukraine issue but there is only one problem in this scenario and it's Russia, always has been. -
By scooby3051 · Posted
No point arguing with Doug, AKA CM...he is NEVER wrong about anything,AKA know nothing know it all... dont waste your breath mate. -
If money is the root of all evil, incompetence surely is the root of most bad decisions in New Zealand racing, both gallops and harness. -
Except that wasnt the point at all, as I explained in previous post. You are bringing "favourites winning percentage" into a discussion it has no relevance in. Your 34% stat includes favourites paying $4.50 which dramatically changes the returns. Our example is based on a $2 odd. Can you verify and confirm the winning percentage of odds paying $2? Doubt it. Can you verify a $1.50 and a $5.00 favourite equally win at a rate of 34%? Doubt it.So either stick to the methodology and the examples used, or start a new conversation. -
Yes it was incompetence that caused the problem, however if the really want to retain HB why haven’t that got on with it and sorted to small problem?
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